Pro-Trump whale Fredi9999 is shifting Polymarket odds
A single crypto wallet is trading tens of millions of dollars on Polymarket, a crypto-friendly prediction market. The trader, known by its social handle Fredi9999, has transacted over $73 million worth of mostly pro-Donald Trump bets and currently has $12 million on the line for Trump winning the election on November 5. Although higher frequency traders have transacted larger volumes on an absolute basis, Fredi9999 is the site’s most profitable crypto wallet this month and second-most profitable trader of all time. As the trader climbed the Polymarket leaderboard, it attracted media scrutiny for its political motivations. Specifically, some people believe that the trader’s wealth is creating a 5-8% ‘Fredi premium’ on Polymarket’s 2024 US presidential election market. Others estimate its impact at an even higher 13%. Because changing prices in liquid markets cause a variety of emotional and non-quantifiable changes in traders’ behavior, it is impossible to determine the exact impact